South Africa's integration into the global economy: a structural dynamic factor analysis

DSpace/Manakin Repository

Show simple item record

dc.contributor.author Kabundi, Alain Ntumba
dc.date.accessioned 2008-06-10T05:47:17Z
dc.date.available 2008-06-10T05:47:17Z
dc.date.issued 2008-06-10T05:47:17Z
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10210/596
dc.description.abstract This thesis studies the integration of South Africa into the global economy. It uses a structural dynamic factor model approach, instead of the well known structural vector autoregressive method, as it accommodates a large panel of time series variables characterized by a number of series significantly larger than the number of observations available. South African economic cycles show some comovement with cycles of its trading partners. But the synchronization with major trading partners has declined over time due to structural reforms initiated by the post-apartheid government. A new monetary regime, trade and financial openness, an increase in political stability together with reduced uncertainty have outweighed South African output comovement with the rest of the world. Shocks from advanced economies (the US and the EU) and East Asian countries, especially demand shocks, affect domestic variables significantly. The main channels are business and consumer confidence, trade variables, interest rates, and the exchange rate. Although South Africa comoves with Latin American countries, trade and financial linkages are still very weak. The level of development, perceptions of economic agents, and fluctuations of advanced economies (the US and the EU) are the main reasons contributing to the synchronization of their variables. South Africa’s position in Africa as economic leader starts to produce results leading to output synchronization with some of its partners’ from SADC. Similar to the Latin American scenario, the main reason is that the two sides share the EU as primary trading partner. Because of the vulnerability of the South African economy, policymakers must pay a particular attention and monitor closely developments in the global economy. In the same line, they should promote policies that enable the country to have access to international markets. Given the interdependence with the rest of the world, policymakers should monitor closely the performance of the global economy. Nevertheless, idiosyncratic features of the South African economy do play a role in the explaining fluctuations in economic activity. Hence, policies that lead to a structural transformation of the domestic economy are necessary. Reforms that allow labor market flexibility; promote competition; and support human capital formation through education, are imperative. en
dc.description.sponsorship Doctor Francisco Nadal De Simone Professor Daniel Marais en
dc.language.iso en en
dc.subject Economic integration in Southern Africa en
dc.subject South Africa's foreign economic relations en
dc.subject Globalization en
dc.subject International economic integration en
dc.title South Africa's integration into the global economy: a structural dynamic factor analysis en
dc.type Thesis en

Files in this item

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

Search UJDigispace


Advanced Search

Browse

My Account